Add likelihood gate to the no-speculative-hardening rule in its enforcing artifacts #233
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jared/cc-os#233
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The no-speculative-hardening rule gained a likelihood gate (2026-08-02, #232 discussion): before suggesting speculative hardening, weigh the likelihood the situation occurs. Unlikely -> discard silently, never raise. Medium/high -> surface to the user with a weighted likelihood estimate, offering the identify-and-call-out treatment (tell recorded, remedy undecided, debated on first real occurrence — see plugins/os-sdlc/skills/fix-lints/references/sweep-remediation.md). Direction: these suggestions should decrease unless likely-to-guaranteed.
The gate is captured in session memory but the enforcing artifacts still express the binary rule: the os-aidd-lint Tier-2 catalog provenance rule (added 2026-07-28) and the cc-architect authoring convention. Evaluate whether/how each should express the gate — the lint rule may only need the call-out pattern recognized as legitimate provenance-free form, since likelihood weighing happens at authoring time, not lint time.
Frozen in the 2026-08-16 backlog reset — see #419 for the expiry procedure. Do not work unless a live run rediscovers this issue.